Energy Transition · Onshore wind

What flows through an onshore wind farm — and how it pays

Wind turns the turbines; the power runs through array cables to an on-site substation and onto the grid. Generation rides the load factor, and revenue splits between price-stabilised contracted (CfD/PPA) income and volatile merchant sales. Near-zero running cost means very high margins — but cash flow depends on the wind and the power price. Adjust the drivers and watch it build EBITDA and value.

30%
£75
70%
LIVE
Generation power flowing to shore Contracted £ CfD / PPA (stable) Merchant £ wholesale (volatile) Operating cost
Flows — annualised from current assumptionsper year
Revenue p.a.
£0
£0 / hr
EBITDA p.a.
£0
0% margin
Revenue / MWh
£0
blended capture price
Generation p.a.
0
0% load factor
Stocks — what the flows accumulate intolive
Output now
0
live, of 90 MW capacity
EBITDA banked · session
£0
accumulating in real time
Implied enterprise value
£0
at 11× EBITDA
The two tills — contracted vs merchant Total £0 p.a.
Contracted
Merchant
Why investors watch the split: contracted revenue (a CfD or corporate PPA) is price-stabilised and low risk; merchant revenue rides volatile wholesale power prices — more upside but more risk. The contracted share is the core risk/return dial, and generation depends entirely on the wind.
Revenue streams£0 p.a.
Operating costs£0 p.a.
Investment case — should you buy it?DCF returns

Year-1 financials flow live from the simulation above: revenue £0 and EBITDA £0 p.a. Set your deal terms below — the unlevered IRR (asset return) and levered IRR (return to equity, after debt) recompute instantly.

Operating

%
%
%
%
%
%

Valuation & hold

×
×
y

Financing

×
%
%
Unlevered IRR
—
asset / project return
Levered IRR
—
return to equity
Equity multiple
—
MOIC over hold
Equity gain
—
exit equity − invested
Equity cash-flow profile£m · ■ invested   ■ returned
Projection — £m per year

Illustrative model. Represents a ~90 MW onshore wind farm operating 24×365. Revenue = generation × price, with a contracted share sold at an indexed CfD/PPA strike (~£45/MWh) and the balance sold merchant at the wholesale power price. Near-zero running cost; opex is largely fixed (O&M, land lease, transmission, insurance). EBITDA = revenue − operating costs. The investment case is a simplified DCF: unlevered IRR discounts free cash flow to the firm (EBITDA − cash tax − capex) plus an exit on the EV/EBITDA multiple; levered IRR is the equity cash flow after debt drawn at entry, interest and amortisation. Onshore wind has a lower load factor (~30%) but lower capex and opex than offshore. Excludes construction, transaction costs and refinancing. For illustration only — not investment advice, and not any specific asset.