Heat Network DCF — HSA Cashflow Model

Last Mile Asset Management · Internal Reference Tool

Core inputs only
Adjust parameters → results update live
Network Scale
Connected homes (EPC units) anchor + residential
units
500
Avg annual heat demand per unit MWh/yr
MWh/unit
12
Network loss factor % of generated heat lost
%
15%
Revenue (HSA)
Heat unit rate charged to customer
p/kWh
8.5p
Annual standing charge per connected unit
£/yr
£200
Revenue escalation annual RPI-linked
% p.a.
3.0%
Operating Costs
Electricity input cost HP electricity purchase
p/kWh
22p
Heat pump COP coefficient of performance
ratio
3.0x
O&M cost annual network maintenance
£/conn/yr
£150
Opex escalation
% p.a.
Capital & Returns
Initial capex total network build cost
£k
£5,000k
Maintenance capex annual lifecycle reinvestment
£k/yr
WACC weighted avg cost of capital
%
7.5%
HSA contract term years modelled
years
25 yrs
Terminal value multiple × final year EBITDA
×
12×
NPV of FCFs
£k
Implied EV (incl. TV)
£k total
Yr 1 EBITDA Margin
% of revenue
Yr 1 Revenue
Yr 1 Elec Cost
Heat gen. req.
EV / conn.
Annual Cashflow Summary (£k)
Year Revenue Elec Cost O&M EBITDA Maint. Capex FCF Disc. FCF Cum. DCF
NPV Sensitivity — WACC vs Heat Rate (£k)
Key assumptions: Revenue = (heat demand × unit rate) + standing charge. Heat generation required = demand ÷ (1 − loss factor). Electricity input = heat generated ÷ COP. All costs and revenues escalate annually from Year 1. FCF = EBITDA − maintenance capex. Terminal value = final year EBITDA × multiple, discounted at WACC. Tax and leverage not modelled in core version.